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Other Polar News and Announcements - archive from 2009

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European Polar Board seeks a new Head

The European Polar Board unit at the European Science Foundation is looking for a new Head of Unit to support the Board's overall mission, which is to facilitate cooperation and coordination between directors and managers of national funded Polar Programmes in order to identify and prioritise issues of common European interest and add strategic value to the efforts of national programmes. The European Polar Board (EPB), a non-governmental body under the auspices of the European Science Foundation, is the ESF's expert committee on Science Policy in the Polar Regions, and acts as a voice and facilitator of cooperation between European National Funding Agencies, National Polar Institutes and research organizations. The EPB is concerned with major strategic priorities in the Arctic and Antarctic and has members from national operators and research institutes in 19 countries including pre-Accession countries to the EU and States outside the EU such as Russia.

The EPB hope to have the new head of the unit in place by January 2010 and the appointee will be based in Strasbourg. Further information on the ESF, EPB and detailed particulars regarding the post of Head can be found on the ESF website.

Global surface temperature predictions based on observations

Numerical models find it difficult to produce reliable predictions of Earth's surface temperature for the near future. To improve temperature forecasts, Lean and Rind (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2009GL038932, 2009) decomposed the observed temperature change in recent years into components due to anthropogenic causes and due to natural causes. Their study explains why 1998 was especially warm and why surface temperatures have not increased since. 1998 was influenced by a super El Niño, and since 2000, declining solar activity and La Niña cooling have cancelled the warming due to increased greenhouses gases, keeping temperatures more or less constant (though still much warmer than in the 1960s). The authors used their decomposition to predict that from 2009-2014 global temperature will increase by about 0.15°C as both anthropogenic forcing and solar irradiance increase. From 2014-2019 decreasing solar irradiance (decline of the next sunspot cycle) will likely cancel much anthropogenic warming, so leading to only slight temperature increases during those years. Because these projections are based on observations of how ocean and solar influences have changed global temperatures in the recent past the authors believe their forecasts are the most reliable available. Note that the trend underlying these various changes is upward due to anthropogenic forcing (modified from EOS, v.90 (no.37), September 2009 p.327].

New Website for the International Permafrost Association

A new website has been launched for the International Permafrost Association. The website is a joint venture with the Arctic Portal and features a wide range of new features through user membership, including access to permafrost data, membership on the new Permalist mailing list, access to picture galleries, IPA documents, and other resources. It is regularly updated with news from the International Permafrost Association and members' countries and will be progressively enhanced to offer a wide range of web 2.0 features to its users. Permalist is a new activity of the IPA and is an email-based, unmoderated mailing list focused on permafrost activities, resources, event announcements, etc. It is accessible to all with an interest in permafrost and periglacial activities. It is coupled to user membership on the website. Only website users can post to the mailing list. Permalist is generously hosted by the International Arctic Research Center (IARC) in Fairbanks, Alaska. The International Permafrost Association (IPA), founded in 1983, fosters the dissemination of knowledge concerning permafrost and promotes cooperation among persons and national or international organizations engaged in scientific investigation and engineering work on permafrost. SCAR and IASC are partners of the IPA.

IPY October Polar Week (Oct 5-9)

October Polar Week (October 5-9th) is fast approaching and the IPY International Project Office is currently developing an activity flyer for release and soliciting international partnerships with schools, youth, museums, science centres and community clubs to host IPY activities during the week. The theme for this Polar Week is What Happens at the Poles Affects Us All and has four main goals:

To expand the IPY global networks of motivated and enthused educators;
To raise the visibility of polar issues and polar organizations;
To enhance the development of polar science educational materials; and
To develop long-term education and outreach partnerships for polar science.

Please keep your eye on the IPO website for details as they develop. If you have any events planned during October Polar Week and would like to connect to the international IPY community, please contact Karen Edwards directly at karen.edwards@ualberta.ca

Host a PolarTREC Teacher

PolarTREC (Teachers and Researchers Exploring and Collaborating) is currently accepting applications from researchers at US institutions for the fourth year of teacher research experiences. Researchers are invited to submit an application to host a PolarTREC teacher in the 2010 arctic and/or the 2010-2011 Antarctic field seasons (the application deadline is 20 September). Teachers are also invited to apply for places on the programme, with an application deadline of 5 October. More information and application forms are available from the PolarTREC website.

PolarTREC, a program of the Arctic Research Consortium of the US (ARCUS), is a project in which K-12 teachers participate in polar research, working closely with scientists as a pathway to improving science education. The program integrates research and education to produce a legacy of long-term teacher-researcher collaborations, improved teacher content knowledge and instructional practices, and broad public interest and engagement in polar science. PolarTREC projects focus on a wide variety of research activities occurring in both the Arctic and Antarctic, providing an outstanding opportunity for researchers to share their passion for polar science through topics that naturally engage students and the wider public.

Through PolarTREC, teachers spend two to six weeks in the Arctic or Antarctic, working closely with researchers in the field as an integral part of the science team. PolarTREC teachers and researchers are matched based on similar science interests; selected researchers will have the opportunity to interview top applicants and make final selections. Teachers participate in an orientation and are trained extensively to meet the program requirements prior to the field season. While in the field, teachers and researchers communicate extensively with their colleagues, communities, and students of all ages across the globe, using a variety of tools including online journals, forums, podcasts, and interactive webinars from the field.

For further information, please contact the PolarTREC staff at info@polartrec.com or visit the PolarTREC website.

Polar Bears Will Decline Along with Arctic Ice

Much to the chagrin of sceptics, it would appear from careful analyses of what polar bear populations are actually doing, rather than what the media thinks they are doing, that there is a clear relationship between declining Arctic sea ice and declining polar bear populations. The hard data, the models and the projections are carefully analysed in the light of what sceptics have to say, in a comprehensive paper led by the US Geological Survey. The implication is clear: as the Arctic continues to warm, and as sea ice continues to decline over the decades, polar bears will lose habitat and will not be able to make up for it by foraging inland. These beasts are under threat.

Read the full paper on the future of polar bears.

Sunspots, Oceanic Oscillations and Global Warming

The fact that the world cooled slightly in 2008 appears related to three phenomena: (i) the Pacific Decadal Oscillation entered a cool phase, and its cooling of the North Pacific has had an effect on the temperatures of east Asia and western North America and hence on global temperature; (ii) the Pacific has recently experienced an extended La Niña (cool) phase, and La Niña events, like El Niño (warm) events have an impact on global temperature; and (iii) we are at a low in the 11-year sunspot cycle; fewer sunspots means a very slightly cooler sun. These three things together conspired to keep 2008 cooler than average. The prognosis for the future is that we are now entering an El Nino event, and the sunspot cycle should soon turn around to reach a maximum somewhere around 2013 (see NASA's Solar Cycle Prediction). Next year is likely to be a warm one.

UK Ice Sheets and Sea Level Rise Scoping Study

The executive summary of the Ice Sheets and Sea Level Rise scoping study (1: Greenland Activities) is now available on the NERC website. The scoping study was commissioned in September 2008 to put forward a series of options for a research programme that will improve understanding of the stability of ice sheets and the projections of future melting and related sea level rise. The focus of the scoping study is the stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. It directly relates to planning delivery of the NERC strategy, in particular the Earth System Science (ESS), Climate System (CS) and Natural Hazards (NH) themes.

Carbon dioxide emissions cause ocean acidification - Inter-Academy Panel statement on Ocean Acidification

The attached statement has been endorsed by 70 science academies from around the world and will be formally launched during the UNFCCC Bonn talks in early June 2009. The UK's Royal Society notes:- "The timing of this statement is deliberate. The acidification of the world's oceans, like climate change, is a direct consequence of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Deep and rapid cuts in CO₂ emissions are the only solution, and yet ocean acidification is not yet on the agenda for the UNFCCC Bonn or Copenhagen climate talks in 2009. The objective of this statement is therefore to raise the profile of ocean acidification within the context of the UNFCCC talks, and to encourage climate negotiators to consider the additional impacts of ocean acidification when discussing global emission reduction targets.

The statement emphasises;

the critical role of the oceans in the global carbon cycle: the oceans have absorbed about a quarter of the carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere by human activities since the industrial revolution.
the rapidity and irreversibility of the changes in ocean chemistry that have occurred as a direct result. The oceans are now more acidic than they have been for 800,000 years.
the implications of these changes for marine ecosystems. At current emission rates models suggest that all coral reefs and polar ecosystems will be severely affected by 2050 or potentially even earlier. Marine food supplies are likely to be reduced with significant implications for food production and security in regions dependent on fish protein, and human health and well-being.

The statement concludes that deep and rapid reductions of global CO₂ emissions by at least 50% by 2050 and much more thereafter are needed, and calls on world leaders to:

Acknowledge that ocean acidification is a direct and real consequence of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, is already having an effect at current concentrations, and is likely to cause grave harm to important marine ecosystems as CO₂ concentrations reach 450 ppm and above;
Recognise that reducing the build up of CO₂ in the atmosphere is the only practicable solution to mitigating ocean acidification;
Within the context of the UNFCCC negotiations, recognise the direct threats posed by increasing atmospheric CO₂ emissions to the oceans and therefore society, and take action to mitigate this threat;
Implement action to reduce global CO₂ emissions by at least 50% of 1990 levels by 2050 and continue to reduce them thereafter;
Reinvigorate action to reduce stressors, such as overfishing and pollution, on marine ecosystems to increase resilience to ocean acidification. "

Presentations Now Available Online: A Celebration of International Polar Year 2007-2008

The US National Academy of Sciences, together with the National Science Foundation, held a celebration on 6 April 2009 to recognize the achievements of the International Polar Year 2007-2008 (IPY). The meeting included highlights of IPY projects, including such topics as climate change, sea ice stability, Antarctic ecosystems, and people in the Arctic. Presentation videos detailing various aspects of IPY research are available on the National Science Foundation website.

The posted presentations include:

Welcoming and Opening Remarks by James White, Ralph J. Cicerone, and Arden L. Bement, Jr.;
How the Past Informs the Future by Richard Alley, Pennsylvania State University;
Responses to Sea Ice in Transition by Hajo Eicken, University of Alaska Fairbanks;
Ice Sheet Stability and Global Sea Level by David Holland, New York University;
A Systems View of Climate Change in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres by Timothy Killeen, Geosciences Directorate, National Science Foundation;
The Arctic: IPY 1882 to IPY 2050 by Stephanie Pfirman, Barnard College;
Antarctic Ecosystems and Climate Change by Diana Wall, Colorado State University;
Audience Questions and Answers.

More greenhouse gas methane emerging from warming Arctic permafrost

The Alfred Wegener Institute reports (30 March 2009) that higher temperatures in Arctic permafrost soils alter the community of methane-producing microorganisms and lead to an increased emission of methane. Results come from work in the Laptev Sea, a shallow shelf sea close to the coast of Siberia. Caused by overflooding with relatively warm sea water, this so-called 'submarine permafrost' is about 10º C warmer than the permafrost on land.

Permafrost covers about 25% of the earth's land area and stores huge amounts of organic carbon. In the absence of oxygen, the climate relevant trace gas methane is generated by decomposition of organic carbon. Special microorganisms (methanogenic archaea) are responsible for the generation of methane. The microorganisms generate methane even in deeply frozen permafrost layers of about -7° C. If these temperatures are experimentally increased by some degrees, the organisms' metabolic activity increases and thus also the production of methane in permafrost. Submarine permafrost has developed in a former landmass which was flooded due to the raised main sea level after the last glacial. It is therefore originally a terrestrial permafrost deposit. In contrast to current terrestrial permafrost with a mean temperature of -12° C, submarine permafrost has already been warmed to a temperature of -2° C. By comparing the two communities of microorganisms generating methane in both permafrost regions, AWI could show that the composition of methane-producing microorganisms in submarine permafrost is different from that in terrestrial permafrost, and adapted to the warmer conditions.

The data suggest that the atmospheric warming we observe leads to an increased emission of the climate relevant trace gas methane in earth's vast permafrost regions today.

Arctic Dipole is the Major Driver for Arctic Sea Ice Minima

New research is now available on the causes of the arctic summer sea ice minimum in 2007 and other previous minima. Dr Jia Wang of NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory and his colleagues recently published an article in Geophysical Research Letters to explain that the Arctic Dipole (DA) is the major driver for the Arctic sea ice minima.

The previous record lows of arctic summer sea ice extent are found to be triggered by the arctic atmospheric Dipole Anomaly (DA) pattern. This local, second-leading mode of sea-level pressure anomaly in the Arctic produced a strong meridional wind anomaly that drove more sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean from the western to the eastern Arctic into the northern Atlantic during the summers of 1995, 1999, 2002, 2005, and 2007. In the 2007 summer, the DA also enhanced anomalous oceanic heat flux into the Arctic Ocean via Bering Strait, which accelerated bottom and lateral melting of sea ice and amplified the ice-albedo feedback. A coupled ice-ocean model was used to confirm the historical record lows of summer sea ice extent.

For more information, see the full paper.

Polar Oceans Day - March 2009

Every three months, IPY celebrates International Polar Days, focusing on a different aspect of polar research. Previous Polar Days have focused on Sea Ice, Ice Sheets, Changing Earth, Land & Life, People and Research Above the Polar Regions. In March 2009, there will be a focus on Polar Oceans. Events will start on the 18th March with activities continuing throughout that week until the 26th March. A list of activities is available from the IPY website.

We want to make this day as multilingual as we can and are keen to encourage as many local activities as possible that range from inspiring primary school classes to providing higher-level information about IPY research and the process of science for higher-level students, educators and media.

In conjunction with this, there will be several live events connecting researchers in the field with students around the world, activity and ocean summary flyers in many languages, a virtual balloon launch, and profiles of IPY research and researchers. If you would like to contribute, or if you have any links and resources or educational activities you think would be suitable for this day, please contact Nicola Munro (ipy1@bas.ac.uk).

Antarctic and Arctic Essay Competition

The Association of Early Career Scientists (APECS), together with the organisers of the Antarctic Treaty Summit, are asking all young researchers to share their thoughts and opinions in form of an essay focusing on how to better integrate science and policy, and on the needs for new policy dealing with current issues in the Antarctic as well as the Arctic. Winners will receive a travel fellowship to represent the new generation of polar researchers at the Antarctic Treaty Summit, which will be held in Washington, DC from 30 November to 3 December, 2009. The deadline for submissions is 15 March 2009. For more information, please visit the essay competition page of the APECS website.

Download the application form.

International Polar Day focusing on Oceans

The next International Polar Day will focus on Oceans, with activities occurring around the world between March 18th and 25th. During that period, the IPY Office is hoping to catalyse many international, multi-lingual activities around the world. The Office is looking for scientists with expertise related to polar oceans who could help write, or check, content for the webpages, check educational activities, talk about their research during 'live events', or be profiled in our Meet the Scientist section. Please pass this information on to any colleagues, students, or mentors who might be interested in polar science outreach. More details about Polar Days can be found on the IPY Polar Days web page or by downloading the invitation letter from the IPY Office.

Record 2007 Greenland Ice Sheet Melt

The latest snow modelling data, reported in the Journal EOS (vol. 90, No. 2, 13 Jan 2009), show that the melt extent in 2007 was 915,000 sq km, 20% more than the average for 1995-2006. Runoff was 35% greater than the 1995-2006 average. These trends are increases on previous years, suggesting a speeding up in the underlying processes. At the time of writing the trend for 2008 seemed to be continuing that for 2007.

Global temperature - 2008 cool, but still 7^th warmest since 1900

The analysis of global temperature trends by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS) is now out, and shows that even though we had record sea ice melt in the Arctic, 2008 was cooler than 2007. Nevertheless it was still one of the top 10 warmest years of recent times. The cause of the cooling appears to be persistence of a cold La Niña event in the Pacific, combined with the fact that we are now at the nadir between two sunspot cycles, and that solar output is fractionally lower than at the last such nadir. There are signs that the La Niña may soon be replaced by an El Niño, and, if the sunspot cycles continue as they have in recent times, the number of sunspots (hence solar energy emitted) should soon rise. A record warm year appears to be likely in the next couple of years.

Read the full article.

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