pdf BP020: What Does the United Nations Paris Climate Agreement Mean for Antarctica?

ATCM XL and CEP XX 2017, Beijing, China

Background Paper

BP020: What Does the United Nations Paris Climate Agreement Mean for Antarctica?

Submitted: 21/04/2017

Summary:

This presentation to the XL ATCM will outline the implications of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement for Antarctica. It will briefly examine the relationship between the ATS, its agreements and SCAR and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The consequences for Antarctica and the Southern Ocean of 1.5°C, 2°C, and more than 2°C of global warming are presented based on the latest international science, much of which has been conducted under the auspices of SCAR’s strategic research programmes. However, the presentation will primarily focus on one of the biggest uncertainties in policy-relevant climate science, which was highlighted in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report in 2013. This is, “how fast and how much will Antarctic ice mass loss contribute to global sea-level rise (SLR) over the coming century and beyond, and will achieving the target of the Paris Climate Agreement mitigate significant global SLR?” Impacts and avoided impacts for the Antarctic environment, the ATS and its activities, and the rest of the world are addressed.

See also Information Paper 161 ( pdf IP161 (316 KB) ), with Attachment 44 ( pdf ATT044 (5.56 MB) ), and Background Paper 20 ( pdf BP020 (256 KB) ). The pdf lecture slides (3.55 MB)  and  pdf lecture text (152 KB)  from the SCAR lecture are also available.