pdf IP161: SCAR Science Lecture: What does the United Nations Paris Climate Agreement mean for Antarctica?

ATCM XL and CEP XX 2017, Beijing, China

Information Paper

IP161: What does the United Nations Paris Climate Agreement mean for Antarctica?

SCAR Science Lecture

by Tim Naish

Submitted: 28/04/2017

Summary:

The SCAR Science presentation to XL ATCM will outline the implications of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement for Antarctica. Key issues addressed are:

• The relationship between the ATS, its agreements and SCAR and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
• The consequences for Antarctica and the Southern Ocean of 1.5°C, 2°C, and more than 2°C of global warming are presented based on the latest international science, much of which has been conducted under the auspices of SCAR’s strategic research programmes.
• The poorly understood, and potentially underestimated, contribution of Antarctic ice loss to future global sea-level rise (SLR) is a major uncertainty in policy-relevant climate science. This was highlighted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report in 2013. Advances in understanding since 2013 will be presented in the context of future climate pathways where 2°C of global warming is achieved, or alternatively, not achieved.
• Understanding the impacts and avoided impacts of achieving the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement, for ATS members, their activities, and implications for the rest of the world is a key Future Science Challenge identified by SCAR and the Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programmes (COMNAP) addressed in ACTM XL Working Group 2 agenda item 15a (see Background Paper 20).

See also selected slides in Attachment 44 ( pdf ATT044 (5.56 MB) ) 

The  pdf lecture text (152 KB) ,  pdf lecture slides (3.55 MB)  and associated Background Paper 20 ( pdf BP020 (256 KB) ) are also available.