SCAR XXXVI Paper 28: Final Report of SRP AntClim21 (Antarctic Climate Change in the 21st Century) Popular

SCAR XXXVI Delegates Meeting, Online, 16-25 March 2021

SCAR XXXVI Paper 28: Final Report of SRP AntClim21 (Antarctic Climate Change in the 21st Century)

Agenda Item: 16.1
Person Responsible: Tom Bracegirdle

Authors: Tom Bracegirdle (UK), Nancy Bertler (New Zealand), Alia Khan (USA), Gerhard Krinner (France), Marilyn Raphael (USA), Joellen Russell (USA).

Introduction/background to the programme

AntClim21 has been focussed on the critical issue of estimating how the Antarctic climate system may change over the 21st century. Although the focus was on physical components of the system, specifically atmosphere, ocean and sea ice, strong links across disciplines led to some of the most exciting and high impact science. Key to making scientific progress has been the evaluation of climate models against observations and reconstructions of the past, ranging from the modern instrumental period to longer-term paleo-reconstructions.

Major achievements and legacies

AntClim21 led, and contributed to, major scientific advances. Improved estimates of Antarctic climate change to 2100 were achieved in a number of ways. A new method for combining information from many different climate models was developed to give more precise estimates of Antarctic temperature change. AntClim21 improved the climate model information used in collaborative inter-disciplinary studies of climate change impacts on the Antarctic ice sheet and Antarctic marine and terrestrial ecosystems.
The advances in climate projections were founded on improved knowledge how climate has behaved in the past (both recent and paleo) and on using this information to evaluate the reliability of climate models and the projections they produce. Other major achievements and legacies are:

• Contribution of scientific literature to IPCC reports, both special and full assessment reports.
• The provision of extensive support for ECRs, in particular inclusion in running AntClim21, support for attendance at AntClim21 workshops and meetings, support for attendance at major international conferences (both SCAR and non-SCAR) and through networking events at conferences.
• The development of a vibrant international community of Antarctic climate researchers connecting a range of disciplines.

Final procedural recommendations to Delegates (see main text for an explanation)

To help increase engagement of new participants to SRPs, AntClim21 recommends improvements to group webpages. Related to this, access for approved SRP members to make direct webpage edits would help improve efficiency of implementing updates.